Even in the absence of a full-fledged war between India and Pakistan, the cost of continued antagonism is immense. Civilians in Kashmir and Balochistan will likely bear the brunt. In these already militarised and marginalized regions, proxy support, crackdowns, and violent unrest may intensify.
Tensions between India and Pakistan are once again approaching a dangerous precipice. The immediate trigger: a horrific attack on April 22 in the mountain resort of Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, in which armed men killed more than two dozen tourists. This was one of the deadliest assaults on civilians in the region in over two decades. Delhi was quick to say Pakistani involvement. Islamabad, in turn, has sounded alarms of its own: at midnight on Wednesday, Pakistan’s Minister for Information and Broadcasting claimed Islamabad has “credible intelligence” of an imminent Indian military strike within 24 to 36 hours.
The rhetoric is inflamed, the atmosphere febrile. Yet despite the alarming headlines, a full-scale war remains unlikely. Neither side can afford one: economically, politically, or geopolitically. What we are witnessing is a familiar, if perilous, dance: calculated brinkmanship, designed for domestic consumption.
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces a changed political landscape. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), once an unstoppable electoral machine, lost more than 60 seats in the 2024 general election compared to 2019, which forced Modi into an uneasy coalition with parties that do not necessarily share his hardline Hindu nationalist ideology. After a decade of near-total dominance, India’s democratic opposition has shown signs of revival, and Mr. Modi, once seen as unassailable, now faces growing internal dissent and scrutiny.
In such moments, nationalist posturing can serve as political oxygen. The BJP has long turned to anti-Pakistan sentiment and Hindu-majoritarian appeals to shore up support. With one eye on the 2029 elections, Mr. Modi’s government may seek to galvanize voters by invoking external threats and projecting a muscular response. But this time, the limits of such a strategy are more visible than ever.
Across the border, Pakistan’s powerful military, under pressure from ongoing political turmoil and the deepening crisis around former Prime Minister Imran Khan, finds itself with a similarly useful distraction. Accusations of Indian involvement in the March train hijacking in Balochistan have already been leveled. Now, amid a new crisis, the military can rehabilitate its bruised image, consolidate domestic control, and once again project itself as the nation’s ultimate guardian.
Both sides understand the risks of escalation. Despite deep wounds caused by previous attacks: Mumbai in 2008, Uri in 2016, and Pulwama in 2019, the two nuclear-armed neighbors have thus far stopped short of all-out war. Small-scale skirmishes along the Line of Control remain possible, but all-out conflict would be a catastrophe with no victors.
Yet, even in the absence of war, the cost of continued antagonism is immense. Civilians in Kashmir and Balochistan will likely bear the brunt. In these already militarised and marginalized regions, proxy support, crackdowns, and violent unrest may intensify. If India pushes support for Baloch armed groups, and Pakistan retaliates in kind in Kashmir, these fragile regions could be plunged into deeper chaos.
The international community cannot afford complacency. The United States, in particular so often a silent observer when it comes to South Asian crises must take an active role in de-escalation. The potential for humanitarian fallout is real. A protracted conflict could drive refugee flows not only across South Asia but into Europe, echoing the waves of migration triggered by earlier wars in Afghanistan and Syria.
Now is the time for diplomacy, not brinkmanship. Nationalist games may serve short-term political goals, but they risk long-term regional devastation. India and Pakistan have tested the world’s patience before. But the world and the region’s people can no longer afford this deadly déjà vu.
